French Elections 2017

Another election where the far right is trying to dominate power, Do we think Le Pen will take power this year?

Due to the run off structure it looks like Le Pen will take 1st minority in the first run and lose in the 2nd. But polls have been wrong before...

She seems worse than Trump. Frexit on the cards.

Polls being slightly wrong is one thing but to that extent? Even Fillon still leads 60-40 and I expect Macron (who polls even better) to make the 2nd round. Still 3 months left of course.

I think Le Pen will take it, She's not exactly far right. Majority of her causes are for the French people, The added immigration laws and exit from the EU are only supported by people who don't understand major issue but feel important through this.

She's going to win, It'll start the demise of the EU and the Schengen and probably the fact the Europe will start to the take the same shape as it did in the 1930s, Where the borders were closed.

Nishankly wrote:She seems worse than Trump. Frexit on the cards.

Leaving the EU is not a bad thing. It's an organization that's going to collapse soon anyway, one way or another.

Myesyats wrote:

Nishankly wrote:She seems worse than Trump. Frexit on the cards.

Leaving the EU is not a bad thing. It's an organization that's going to collapse soon anyway, one way or another.

Yeah It probably is, I reckon its going to cause a huge amount of commotion and division in Europe.
Those sentences in the post before weren't interrelated.

After the polling during the US election, and the fact that the phone polls in Britain showed remain winning while online polls showed leave winning, I think it's probably true that politically correct social pressure has made polling completely useless to gauge public opinion, unless it's done in a way that is completely anonymous, because people clearly havent been telling the truth.

It's stupid to bet on the polls, wishful thinking I guess.

DuringTheWar wrote:After the polling during the US election, and the fact that the phone polls in Britain showed remain winning while online polls showed leave winning, I think it's probably true that politically correct social pressure has made polling completely useless to gauge public opinion, unless it's done in a way that is completely anonymous, because people clearly havent been telling the truth.

It's stupid to bet on the polls, wishful thinking I guess.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Polls_of_polls
Polls of polls showed a very small (0% up to 4%) lead of remain and up to 10% undecided.
Leave won with a 3.8 lead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016
Polls showed a nationwide lead of ~2-5 points for Clinton. She won by 2.1%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
The worst poll for 2017 has Macron leading le Pen by 63-37 in a 2nd round vote.

Can you spot the difference?

Polls always have a margin of error. I hope you know what that is. They also don't predict how many people will actually go to vote (they could ask to be fair) and there are always people who are still undecided. This is why leading by a few points can still easily see you end up losing a vote.
But Macron is not leading by a few points. You see the lead.

Of course the situation can change. There are 3 months left after all.

Fillons scandals might really save France from this mess, I really hope they rally around Macron for now.

Le Pen will take this one, mark these words.

Arquitescu wrote:Le Pen will take this one, mark these words.

Don't say that ffs, Well yeah given the recent events I would expect Le Pen to just about edge with some fiery speeches at the end.

I have offers from top Grand Ecoles, I need to make a decision very soon. Horrible situation I am in.

Zigra

The 'poll of polls' on that link completely ignores the point I was making: that phone and online polls were different. 78% of phone polls put remain in the lead, 63% of online polls put leave in the lead. Please tell me what the margin of victory was for remain from a poll of phone polls...
And every single aggregate or 'poll of polls' had Clinton/remain winning so please don't bother blaming the margin of error.

I take your point that the difference in these French polls is greater. In no way am I suggesting people on the left or liberals should become less arrogant. I've experienced much amusement watching them inflict pain on themselves through their own gargantuan hubris. So by all means, for all I care be 100% certain le pen will lose.

BTW Clinton won the public vote. Not sure why you want to use polls predicting that against polls but whatever...

"Online polls, on average, predicted a "leave" win with a 1.2% margin, whereas phone polls had "remain" win with a 2.6% margin." (same link)
Not a lot of time so I stick to the simplest facts: Phone calls were 6.4 percent off the correct result which was considered a shock.
In his worst poll Macron has a 26 point lead.


And I've already said polls can change till May.

There isn't a French version of the Electoral college, is there?

No. They had it till 1962 but got rid and now the president is directly elected by the people.

France has almost always been very centralized, too. They don't bother with Federalism at all, like the US, or Germany, have to.

Arquitescu wrote:Le Pen will take this one, mark these words.

If people are aware and brave enough.

Le Pen massively popular with young French people

https://davidbellefx.com/2017/02/13/the-young-are-voting-for-marine-le-pen-more-than-any-other-age-group-why/

Optimistically (naively) explains it away as 'unemployment'. Heaven forbid we talk about the deeper issues.

What do you guys in France think about this?
@Farfan @Sportsczy

Isn't there any leftist candidate in the French presidential election???

iftikhar wrote:Isn't there any leftist candidate in the French presidential election???

Emmanuel Macron in a way. He's polling second atm, We are yet to see where Fillon's popularity is supposed to go once he's out of the race after the scandal unless something else has transpired.